Steel +21%, Aluminum +39%: Your December Budget Is Dead
Steel and aluminum prices are breaking records in 2026. We analyze the real data, the causes in Hormuz, and 3 urgent actions to save your margin.
Good afternoon.
Let me be direct: the budget you signed in December... (Pause) no longer exists.
If you opened your spreadsheet today, you saw it. Steel has vanished. Aluminum is trading like gold. And your project's profit margin evaporated before laying the first brick.
Is this just a run of bad luck? — No. It is the new reality of 2026. And whoever doesn't understand it today, will be out of business tomorrow.
The Reality of the Numbers (And They Don't Lie)
Forget the alarmist headlines from the general press. Let's look at the raw data.
According to the most recent Producer Price Indices (PPI), the snapshot of February 2026 is, to say the least, chilling. These aren't forecasts; these are the invoices you are paying right now:
| Material | The "Hit" (YoY Variation) | | :--- | :--- | | Aluminum (Profiles) | +39.1% 🔺 | | Steel (Mill) | +20.9% 🔺 | | Freight (Container) | +60% 🔺 | | Natural Gas (TTF) | +90% 🔺 |
The Data Point: In Spain, it's pouring on wet ground. Execution costs had already accumulated a 32% increase between 2020 and 2025. The sector has no cushion left. It's down to the bone.
Why Now? — The "Double Stranglehold"
You might ask: How did we get here in a matter of weeks?
The answer lies 5,000 kilometers away, in the Strait of Hormuz. Until February 28th, 20% of the world's crude oil passed through there. Today, almost nothing does.
The closure of Hormuz plus attacks in the Red Sea. Result: the "perfect storm". 1. Energy: Manufacturing cement or steel requires gas. If gas goes up 90%, brick goes up. Pure math. 2. Aluminum: The Gulf smelters—the cheapest in the world—are blocked. Europe is fighting for the little metal that remains. 3. Logistics: Ships are going around Africa. That takes 14 more days. And time, in this industry... (Pause) is the most expensive enemy.
3 Actions to Survive This Week
Faced with this landscape, you have two options: wait for it to clear up—spoiler: it won't soon—or armor yourself. Here are three tactical moves to execute today:
1. The Price Revision Clause Is Non-Negotiable
If you sign a private contract today without a price revision clause, you are signing your sentence. Demand it. And if the developer refuses, include a breakdown contingency of 20%. Is it uncomfortable to ask? Yes. Is it more uncomfortable to lose money working? Also yes.2. Buy Now, Build Later
"Just in Time" is dead. If you need steel for two months from now, order it now. Paying for storage hurts less than stopping the site due to lack of supply. Secure the material.3. Document or Forever Hold Your Peace
When the time comes to claim the extra cost from the developer, words are carried away by the wind. Only papers matter. You need to record the actual cost of each item, visit by visit. With date, photo, and invoice.[MAURICIO'S NOTE: Sales block here. Subtle but direct pain point: "claim paperwork".]
Ready for renegotiation?
To claim a price deviation, you need proof. OBRATEC automatically records costs and real progress at every site visit, creating the armored history your lawyer will want.
In Conclusion
A 2025 budget is useless in 2026. It's wet paper.
The difference between the construction companies that will overcome this bump and those that will fall won't be their size, nor their age. It will be their ability to adapt. — And their ability to have clear data.
That's how things are... and that's how we've told you.
Public Works? The government has made a move with RDL 7/2026. But be careful, it has fine print. I explain it here: RDL 7/2026 and price revision.